Now to take advantage of my unlikely backup career: the US Army MP Corps.
If a single TV pundit knew anything about how troop movement works, he (or she) would win the argument every time. It is a FACT – even if operations in Iraq ceased tomorrow (which they couldn’t), American troops wouldn’t be home the next day. This is not a matter of the current political environment, this is not a matter of grassroots terrorism in Iraq magically appearing in a major American city. This is pure logistics.
Say CENTCOM got the order to cease and desist. Okay. I estimate it would take a month to (shoddily) hand over control of things like prisons and checkpoints to Iraqi police. Quality and corruption don’t matter anymore; it’s their own damn problem now.
Now nobody’s doing anything except sitting around with billions and billions of dollars’ worth of crap, waiting for transport to pick them up. There are only so many carriers to go around – yes, we still move things by boat. Strykers can’t walk on water, and lots of things are way too heavy for airlift. Not to mention over a hundred thousand people, all their personal gear, and trying to sort out what equipment belongs to which state’s National Guard. The reason why so many National Guards are stuck for equipment is because on their last rotation, they’ll leave stuff in country for someone else to use.
Six months at the quickest. Maybe. Let’s see if the new Army logistics guru (and our first female four-star) is worth her salt.